FDA formally opens peptide review as the narrative shifts to longevity

Allen Lutz

Concern

Falling GLP-1 revenue (estimated to drop from $577 million to $516 million, with 40-50% conversion to branded drugs)

Note

The model does not yet price in any peptide revenue

PT

$21

Rating

Neutral

Reuters: analysts broadly see the easing of peptide rules as a long-term positive for HIMS

HIMS statement: the company is actively exploring wider access to peptides, framed as part of a broader 'longevity care model' spanning treatment, lab testing and hormonal health

Peptide therapy moves out of the grey market and into regulated channels. That is exactly where HIMS competes.

The FDA has formally begun reviewing restricted peptide compounds, a qualitative shift from talk to action

The FDA plans a formal review of some peptides in July and may take them off the high-risk list in the meantime

BofA's $21 price target leaves out peptide revenue potential entirely. If peptides clear the FDA review in July, HIMS's first-mover advantage as the only company with its own peptide plant would turn straight into revenue.

• Labs (blood tests)
• Galleri (early cancer screening)
• Peptides (regenerative medicine)

HIMS's official statement uses the 'longevity care model' framing for the first time

If the market accepts the longevity platform narrative, the valuation framework shifts from telehealth (5-10x P/S) towards longevity and preventive health (higher multiples)

+13.7%

$26.98 (+11.1%)

Rebounded from about $19-20 to $27, back to March levels in 2 days

The stock is 26.8% above its 20-day moving average, a sign of very strong short-term momentum