Eucalyptus brand consolidation, short-seller positioning, a preview of the shareholder meeting and a snapshot of sell-side consensus
Eucalyptus brand consolidation, short-seller positioning, a preview of the shareholder meeting and a snapshot of sell-side consensus.
Analyst consensus
- Breakdown
1 Buy, 3 Outperform, 12 Hold, 1 Underperform
- Canaccord
Maintains Buy, $32 target. Peptides are a $20 billion market, and a 1% share equals $200 million in extra revenue.
- Consensus target
$27-28.70 (shares at $26.19, about 4-10% upside)
- Coverage
17 analysts
- TIKR target
$39 (December 2030)
Key insights
- All Eucalyptus brands will be retired in favour of a single global Hims & Hers brand. That lowers operating costs but risks losing local users.
- The peptide business is not going overseas for now, as international markets wait on the outcome of the FDA's 23 Jul review. That puts the three-year $1 billion international target under heavy pressure.
- A new bear thesis on ValueInvestorsClub estimates 60% downside, though the author concedes there is a risk of a short squeeze.
- Short interest is about 31% of the float. It has held steady since late April, with no new shorts added.
- Insiders' buy-to-sell ratio over the past 3 months is 1:20 (net selling), but most of the sales were under pre-set 10b5-1 plans.
- 11 Jun annual shareholder meeting: the CEO's $22.96 million pay package (a pay ratio of 272:1) is a potential focus for negative headlines.
Show 2 more
- Sell-side consensus: 17 analysts, with 1 Buy, 3 Outperform, 12 Hold and 1 Underperform. Price targets are $27-28.70.
- TIKR's model target is $39 (December 2030). Canaccord maintains Buy with a $32 target.
Short interest
- Bear thesis
Pridwen's write-up on ValueInvestorsClub estimates 60% downside. The core argument is overvaluation, but it concedes the risk of a short squeeze.
- Current
About 31% of the float
- Trend
Steady since late April, no new shorts added
Catalysts to watch
- Outcome of the FDA's peptide review on 23 Jul, which will set the pace of international expansion
- 11 Jun annual shareholder meeting: result of the say-on-pay vote on CEO compensation
- Progress on the Eucalyptus brand consolidation
Risks
- A low approval rate in the CEO pay vote could spark a negative narrative in the short term
- Retiring the local Eucalyptus brands could cost users in Australia and the UK
- The three-year $1 billion international revenue target is under heavy pressure while peptides stay out of overseas markets
- Continued net selling by insiders
Sources 1
- Australian Financial Review, ValueInvestorsClub, TIKR, Canaccord research
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.