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HIMS

Leerink reiterates Hold ahead of 23 Jul, buy-side and sell-side narratives diverge, technical rally while fundamentals stay unchanged

Sources (5)

The FDA advisory committee meeting on pharmacy compounding of peptides on 23-24 Jul is a mild binary event. A positive outcome would open up real upside from fiscal 2027, but in the near term the share price is still driven by the earnings trajectory of the GLP-1 weight-loss business.

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Even Leerink, the most cautious on the sell side ($25, already below the share price), accepts that peptides are a genuinely large market. It simply refuses to assign a valuation premium before 23 Jul. The current rebound to about $31.7 is driven by three factors at once: peptide expectations, the Eucalyptus integration and macro relief from easing US-Iran tensions. But the numbers have not improved: Q1 average monthly online revenue per subscription fell 5.9% YoY and the company unexpectedly swung to a loss. The gap between narrative and numbers keeps widening. The media have conflated buy-side bull Jonah Lupton's scenario of $19 billion in peptide revenue with sell-side research. The real sell-side range is still on the fence: Canaccord Buy $32, Leerink Hold $25.

Key evidence

  • On 16 Jun Leerink's Michael Cherny reiterated Market Perform with a $25 target, calling the 23-24 Jul FDA advisory committee a mild binary event
  • Leerink's logic: a positive peptide outcome could open up upside from fiscal 2027, but the near-term share price is driven by the earnings trajectory of GLP-1 weight loss
  • The sell-side range sits on the fence: Canaccord Buy $32 (highest), Leerink Hold $25 (lowest, already below the current $31.7)
  • The $19 billion peptide revenue figure comes from Jonah Lupton (a hedge fund manager at FirstWave Capital and a guest on the Hims House podcast), who holds a large HIMS position himself and has added about 60% YTD. It is a buy-side bull scenario, not sell-side research.
  • Lupton's assumptions: a global peptide market of $250-380 billion in 2030, with HIMS taking a 4-5% share, equal to $10-19 billion in peptide revenue
  • About $31.7 intraday on Tuesday 16 Jun (+5%), holding above the 20-day line at $26.1 and the 50-day line at $25.9, but still below the 200-day line at $33.57
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  • The narrative behind this rally: peptide expectations, the Eucalyptus integration and the +12.5% macro rebound on 15 Jun as US-Iran tensions eased
  • Fundamentals unchanged: Q1 average monthly online revenue per subscription -5.9% YoY, and an unexpected swing to a loss
  • Form 144 filed on 16 Jun: proposed sale of 5,529 Class A shares (about $137K), plus RSU vesting of 712, 706 and 6,155 shares. The amounts are tiny and the selling routine, not a bearish signal from management.

Catalysts to watch

  • FDA advisory committee meeting on pharmacy compounding of peptides, 23-24 Jul: a mild binary event, with a positive outcome opening up valuation from fiscal 2027
  • Next quarterly report: whether the -5.9% YoY in Q1 average monthly online revenue per subscription persists or worsens, a direct test of the gap between numbers and narrative
  • Progress on the Eucalyptus integration: a key test of execution on expansion in Australia, the UK, Germany and Japan

Risks

  • A widening gap between narrative and numbers: three factors (peptide expectations, the integration story and the macro rebound) are driving the shares, but falling subscription revenue and the swing to a loss remain unresolved
  • If the 23 Jul FDA outcome is negative, the mild binary event may turn out not to be mild. The sell side's refusal to assign a premium is a hedge against exactly this.
  • The media have conflated a buy-side bull's (Lupton's) $19 billion assumption with sell-side consensus, so retail investors may form mismatched expectations
  • Leerink's $25 is already below the current price of about $31.7, implying 21% downside, and the most cautious firm on the sell side has still not raised its target
  • The 200-day line at $33.57 is technical resistance. Whether a narrative-driven rebound can break through when fundamentals have not changed remains to be seen.

Sources 5

  1. Leerink Michael Cherny note (16 Jun): Market Perform, $25
  2. StockTwits and Benzinga headlines, 16 Jun: Jonah Lupton's $19 billion peptide revenue assumption
  3. FirstWave Capital and Hims House podcast: Jonah Lupton's position disclosure
  4. Canaccord research: Buy, $32
  5. SEC Form 144 (16 Jun): insider notice of proposed sale

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.