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HIMS

A second 11% surge with no news, the narrative rally accelerates and valuation leaves sell-side anchors behind

Sources (7)

On 18 Jun HIMS rose another 11.2-11.49% intraday to about $34-35.55 without any new company announcement, taking its gain for the week to about 32% (second in its sector). This was a second day of follow-through after Barclays raised its target ($29 to $39, 17 Jun), not a new catalyst.

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At heart it is a melt-up driven by sentiment and technicals, with three forces stacked together: (1) the Novo alt-data inflection narrative, (2) a technical repair after breaking key resistance at $30 and (3) Barclays igniting sentiment. But the valuation has moved well away from sell-side anchors. The current $34-35 is above the targets of 15 of the 16 analysts, and even Barclays's new $39, the most aggressive, leaves only 12-14% upside. The TIKR/Koyfin consensus average is still $26-28 (4 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Strong Sell). Zacks showed on 11 Jun that this quarter's consensus EPS had been cut by 125.7% (flipping to an expected loss), so the gap between narrative and numbers has widened further. The real binary event is still the FDA PCAC meeting on peptides on 23-24 Jul. In essence, the current gains price in FDA clearance in advance (FirstWave CEO Lupton's $10-19 billion peptide TAM is a buy-side optimistic scenario, not company guidance). If the July outcome disappoints, the room to give back gains is magnified too. In one sentence: the catalyst has not changed, the price has. It has gone from 'close to consensus' to 'far above consensus', and the risk/reward is getting worse.

Key evidence

  • On 18 Jun HIMS rose another 11.2-11.49% intraday to about $34-35.55
  • Up about 32% for the week, second in its sector this week according to Morningstar data
  • Quiver Quantitative stated plainly on 18 Jun that no single new company announcement drove the day's rise. It attributed the move to lagged sentiment as the market digested the raised full-year guidance, the consolidation of Eucalyptus and insider buying by Wells.
  • Cboe options data show clearly bullish flows, with options volume more than twice the daily average (TipRanks, the Fly)
  • The current $34-35 is well above the targets of 15 of the 16 analysts
  • Barclays's new target of $39, the most aggressive, is only 12-14% above the current price
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  • The TIKR/Koyfin consensus average is still $26-28 (of the 16 analysts: 4 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Strong Sell)
  • Zacks showed on 11 Jun that this quarter's consensus EPS had been cut by 125.7% (flipping to an expected loss)
  • FirstWave CEO Lupton's $10-19 billion peptide TAM is a buy-side optimistic scenario, neither sell-side guidance nor company guidance

Catalysts to watch

  • FDA PCAC meeting on peptides, 23-24 Jul (the real binary event, which will decide the path for peptide compounding)
  • Next earnings release: a test of whether the 125.7% EPS cut materialises

Risks

  • The valuation has moved well away from sell-side anchors, with the price above the targets of 15 of 16 analysts
  • This quarter's consensus EPS has been cut by 125.7% (flipping to an expected loss), widening the gap between narrative and numbers
  • The current gains price in FDA clearance in advance. If the July PCAC outcome disappoints, the room to give back gains is magnified.
  • The $10-19 billion peptide TAM is the FirstWave CEO's buy-side optimistic scenario, not company guidance
  • A rally driven by sentiment and technicals lacks fundamental support, and the risk/reward is getting worse

Sources 7

  1. Morningstar sector performance data, 18 Jun
  2. Quiver Quantitative, 18 Jun
  3. TipRanks and the Fly: Cboe options data
  4. Barclays, 17 Jun (target raised from $29 to $39)
  5. TIKR and Koyfin analyst consensus
  6. Zacks consensus EPS revisions, 11 Jun
  7. Public comments by FirstWave CEO Lupton (peptide TAM)

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.