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FCC vote on more direct-to-phone spectrum, Florida Falcon 9 pause of six weeks to make way for Starship, rivals seize on the Ukraine episode

Sources (8)

Three separate threads. (1) On 29 Oct (US Eastern time) the FCC votes on a proposal to add 482 MHz of spectrum for satellite-to-phone service (at the NPRM stage). On 28 Oct Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile jointly asked for 290 MHz of it (60%) to be removed. Spectrum is the ceiling for Starlink Mobile:

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the 650-plus first-generation direct-to-cell satellites give a single user about 4 Mbps, and the next generation's 150 Mbps target needs new spectrum and Starship batch launches. If 290 MHz is cut, the room for second-generation direct-to-cell capacity shrinks markedly. (2) SpaceX launch vice president Dontchev said publicly on 21 Oct that there is a six-week gap before the next Falcon 9 launch in Florida. The most recent Florida launch was Bandwagon-5 from SLC-40 on 20 Oct, and the FAA notices show no confirmed Florida launch date as of 27 Oct. This explains the recent Falcon 9 slowdown: in two weeks there were only two Starlink launches, on 15 Oct and 16 Oct, both from Vandenberg. Q4 Starlink V2 Mini deployments will be held down as SpaceX deliberately trades Falcon capacity for Starship progress at LC-39A, and the official date for Starship in Florida is not set. (3) Ukraine follow-up: the Pentagon inspector general refused a request from senators of both parties to investigate Starlink and Starshield speed limits in Ukraine (AP, 28 Oct). CBS photos show that on 19 Oct, the day Kharkiv was attacked, Starlink speed on a Ukrainian ground air-defence radar fell to 0.1 MB/s. Putin called Musk 'a real genius' and said the two stay in contact 'to avoid getting in each other's way in orbit'. Russia's Rassvet has about 26 working satellites. Space42 (UAE), Terrestar (Canada) and Viasat (US) have teamed up to push open standards for direct-to-cell (Bloomberg, 28 Oct). Eutelsat's CEO stressed that the OneWeb board includes the French and British governments, and that 'switching off the network is not a decision the CEO can take alone'. SpaceX has filed comments with the FCC opposing the expansion of Eutelsat (OneWeb)'s US operating licence and asking for reciprocal treatment (Advanced Television, 28 Oct). In the short term there is no regulatory accountability and US government business is unaffected, but 'single controlling owner' risk has become the main argument for sovereign purchasing in Europe, the Middle East and Canada, and over time it erodes Starlink's overseas government and defence orders. Eutelsat reports Q1 results on 29 Oct, which will show whether OneWeb has any Ukraine orders. SEC EDGAR shows no new filings since the 8-K of 26 Oct.

Key evidence

  • FCC vote on 29 Oct (US Eastern time): a proposal to add 482 MHz of spectrum for satellite-to-phone service. This is an NPRM (notice of proposed rulemaking), not a final rule, and a comment period follows
  • On 28 Oct Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile jointly asked for 290 MHz (60%) to be removed from the proposal (Teslarati)
  • Starlink direct-to-cell today: the website shows 650-plus first-generation direct-to-cell satellites and about 4 Mbps per user. The next generation targets 150 Mbps, which depends on new spectrum and Starship batch launches
  • SpaceX launch vice president Dontchev, 21 Oct: 'There is a six-week gap before the next Falcon 9'
  • The most recent Florida launch was Bandwagon-5 from SLC-40 on 20 Oct. As of 27 Oct the FAA planning notices show no confirmed Florida launch date (Florida Today / Tallahassee Democrat)
  • In the past two weeks Falcon 9 flew only two Starlink launches, on 15 Oct and 16 Oct, both from Vandenberg. Q4 Starlink V2 Mini deployments will be held down
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  • The Pentagon inspector general refused a request from senators of both parties to investigate Starlink and Starshield speed limits in Ukraine (AP, 28 Oct)
  • CBS obtained photos: on 19 Oct, the day Kharkiv was attacked, Starlink speed on a Ukrainian ground air-defence radar fell to 0.1 MB/s
  • In Moscow Putin called Musk 'a real genius' and said the two stay in contact 'to avoid getting in each other's way in orbit'. Russia's Rassvet constellation has about 26 working satellites (Guardian/Reuters, 28 Oct)
  • Space42 (UAE), Terrestar (Canada) and Viasat (US) have teamed up to push open standards and shared infrastructure for satellite-to-phone service (Bloomberg, 28 Oct)
  • Eutelsat's CEO stressed that the OneWeb board includes the French and British governments, and that 'switching off the network is not a decision the CEO can take alone'
  • SpaceX filed comments with the FCC opposing the expansion of Eutelsat (OneWeb)'s US operating licence, arguing that Europe discriminates against US operators and asking for reciprocal treatment, including the option of not recognising its ITU priority (Advanced Television, 28 Oct)
  • SEC EDGAR: no new filings since the 8-K of 26 Oct

Catalysts to watch

  • The result of the FCC vote on 29 Oct and how much spectrum is finally kept (whether the 290 MHz is cut)
  • A confirmed FAA date for the first Starship launch from Florida
  • What Eutelsat's Q1 results on 29 Oct disclose about OneWeb orders related to Ukraine
  • Later sovereign constellation purchasing decisions in Europe, the Middle East and Canada

Risks

  • If the FCC finally cuts 290 MHz, the room for second-generation Starlink Mobile direct-to-cell capacity shrinks markedly and the 150 Mbps target is squeezed
  • Lower Q4 Starlink V2 Mini deployments affect the pace of Starlink net subscriber additions and ARPU
  • If the first Starship launch from Florida slips again, the cost of giving up Falcon capacity rises
  • The 'single controlling owner' narrative erodes overseas government and defence orders over time, and the Space42, Terrestar and Viasat alliance and OneWeb's government backing form a structural alternative
  • No short-term regulatory accountability does not mean no long-term risk: pressure from senators and the CBS exposure could trigger later investigations or legislation

Sources 8

  1. Teslarati, 28 Oct (telecom carriers 290 MHz pushback)
  2. Florida Today / Tallahassee Democrat, 27 Oct (FAA no FL launch dates)
  3. AP, 28 Oct (Pentagon IG declines Starlink/Starshield Ukraine probe)
  4. CBS News, 28 Oct (Kharkiv Starlink speed drop photo)
  5. Guardian / Reuters, 28 Oct (Putin on Musk; Russia Rassvet constellation)
  6. Bloomberg, 28 Oct (Space42 + Terrestar + Viasat D2D alliance)
  7. Advanced Television, 28 Oct (SpaceX FCC filing vs Eutelsat/OneWeb)
  8. SEC EDGAR filings as of 2026-10-29

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.