Competitive landscape and the three-way squeeze before Q1 results
Ro's price war, Amazon One Medical and the pain of moving away from compounded drugs are hitting at once. All three are short-term or structural shocks, not signs of a deteriorating business. The 11 May results are the key test.
Analyst consensus
- Average target price
$29.5-31.7
- Consensus rating
Hold
- Coverage
12-13 analysts
- Highest target
JPMorgan, Overweight, $35
- Latest update
BofA, Neutral, $32 (latest raise)
- Note
Most target prices still exclude peptide revenue
Competitive landscape
- Amazon_One_Medical
Launching a GLP-1 programme. BofA estimates it could cannibalise 31% of HIMS's GLP-1 revenue, but Citi points out that Amazon's $29 remote consultation is limited to renewals and excludes new prescriptions, so the threat is limited.
- Ro_price_war
Ro has halved the price of its weight-loss subscription, which after the first month costs just $74 a month (drugs included). HIMS charges a membership fee of $149 a month (drug costs extra). Ro's strategy is to win customers while HIMS is in transition from compounded to branded drugs. This puts pressure on HIMS's new GLP-1 subscriptions in the short term, but Ro lacks the advantages of a multi-category platform (skin, mental health, hormones, Labs and more), so a pure price war is not sustainable.
- Internal transition
The shift from high-margin compounded drugs to branded drugs creates a revenue gap of about $65 million (a one-off hit)
Price action
HIMS fell as much as 3% in pre-market trading after the news broke
Q1 earnings preview
- Earnings date
11 May 2026
- EPS estimate
$0.06 (down 70% year on year)
- Key metrics to watch
- Net subscriber additions
- Penetration across categories
- Early contribution from the Novo and Lilly partnerships
- Reason for profit decline
A one-off hit from the shift from compounded to branded drugs, not a deterioration in the business
- Revenue estimate
$621 million (up 6% year on year)
Sources (3)
- NewsCase analysis of 26 Apr
- Ro announcement
- BofA and Citi research notes
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.