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TSLA

Jefferies cuts FY26 EBIT by 37%, Terafab's cash drain quantified, Robotaxi paid miles fall 36% QoQ in Q2

Sources (7)

The current price of $328.58 rests entirely on long-term AI optionality (Terafab, Robotaxi and Optimus), and the disconnect from the car-selling fundamentals is unchanged. Jefferies has for the first time slashed its 2026 EBIT forecast.

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The first phase of Terafab, at $16.8 billion, is equal to 38.6% of Tesla's cash and short-term investments and 2.9 times a quarter's capex, and the funding split has not been disclosed. Robotaxi paid miles fell 36% QoQ in Q2, shrinking even as the service expands into new cities. All three put pressure on the valuation anchor at once.

Key evidence

  • Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois cut his TSLA price target from $400 to $350 (keeping Hold), implying upside of only 6.5% (against Friday's $328.58)
  • Jefferies cut its full-year 2026 EBIT forecast by 37% in one go, to $3.9 billion, citing thoroughly disappointing operating leverage in Q2. It is the first sell-side analyst to cut 2026 earnings expectations so drastically.
  • The first phase of Terafab, at $16.8 billion, is roughly 38.6% of Tesla's cash and short-term investments at the end of June and 2.9 times Q2 capex. The share each of Tesla and SpaceX is putting in has still not been officially disclosed.
  • Wedbush's Dan Ives and Baird's Ben Kallo have both publicly called for disclosure of who is funding Terafab and how the debt is arranged
  • Retail investors were net buyers of about $372 million of TSLA over the past 5 trading days (more than 3 times the previous week), helping to lift the stock 5.6% on the week to close at $328.58, ahead of the Nasdaq's +5.2%
  • TechCrunch reported on 8 Aug that Terafab will be powered by a natural gas power plant (not Tesla solar), which contradicts its clean energy label
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  • Data from the Q2 results deck: Robotaxi paid miles fell 36% in Q2 from Q1, while Tesla kept expanding into new cities over the same period
  • Robotaxi cumulative paid miles are about 2.44 million, with 22 federal crash reports. A third-party estimate puts the crash rate at 5.7 to 13.6 (95% confidence interval).
  • Management's version: more than 380,000 cumulative miles of fully unsupervised operation across six cities in two states, with zero major accidents claimed
  • The fundamental anchor is unchanged: Q2 automotive gross margin of 16.3%, operating margin of 1.4%, negative FCF
  • Secondary: California DMV records show Tesla Robotaxi LLC holds a testing permit with safety drivers, and San Diego may be the next stop
  • Secondary: UK deliveries fell 9% YoY in July, and pressure from low-priced Chinese brands continues
  • Secondary: the third wave of FSD v14.3.7 (2026.21.5) went to about 1,210 AI4 vehicles, and HW3 cars in South Korea received v14 Lite

Catalysts to watch

  • Disclosure of Terafab's funding split and who carries the debt (still pending, and a potential trigger for a repricing once it lands)
  • More sell-side analysts following Jefferies in slashing EBIT expectations (Morgan Stanley and UBS have already cut, and the consensus could move down faster)
  • Whether Q3 Robotaxi paid mileage stops falling and recovers (a test of the core bull case)
  • Progress on Robotaxi launches in San Diego or other new cities
  • A broader rollout of FSD v14 (incremental rather than a flashpoint)

Risks

  • Terafab as a funding black hole: $16.8 billion equals 38.6% of cash and short-term investments, and if Tesla carries the bulk of it, the balance sheet will be badly eroded
  • Robotaxi is expanding into new cities while volumes shrink, confirming that expansion does not equal monetisation and loosening a pillar of the autonomous driving valuation
  • The car-selling fundamentals keep deteriorating: Q2 automotive gross margin of 16.3%, operating margin of 1.4%, negative FCF
  • Retail enthusiasm is propping up the stock while sell-side expectations are being slashed, a divergence. If retail money stops flowing in, the support for the narrative comes loose.
  • If regulators or the media amplify the Robotaxi crash-rate range of 5.7 to 13.6, it could reverse the safety narrative
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  • UK deliveries fell 9% in July, and pressure from low-priced Chinese brands continues worldwide
  • Terafab's gas power supply contradicts its clean energy label, damaging the ESG narrative

Sources 7

  1. Jefferies research note (Philippe Houchois, price target $350, FY26 EBIT $3.9 billion)
  2. Tesla Q2 results deck (Robotaxi paid mileage data)
  3. TechCrunch (8 Aug 2026, report on Terafab's gas power supply)
  4. Wedbush (public comments by Dan Ives), Baird (public comments by Ben Kallo)
  5. California DMV records, San Diego Union-Tribune
  6. Third-party crash rate statistics (95% confidence interval of 5.7 to 13.6)
  7. Retail fund flow data (net purchases of $372 million over the past 5 trading days)

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.