Evidence of Cybercab FSD v15 track training and of Semi production ramp-up in Nevada's end-of-line area
Two pieces of physical evidence that move the statements and date anchors published earlier closer to 'real-vehicle testing and supply delivery'. First, at the Giga Texas test track, Cybercabs are using FSD v15 to learn multi-lane stop-sign scenarios, which takes the 'launch date locked for 3 Sep' story from an event-date anchor to a real-vehicle v15
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rehearsal. Second, finished vehicles are piling up in the end-of-line area at the Nevada Semi factory, the clearest first-hand, on-the-ground evidence so far that capacity is actually ramping. It adds real evidence of supply delivery to demand-side order narratives such as Einride's 500 trucks and the European push at the IAA. Both are incremental catalysts, not valuation-level turning points.
Key evidence
- Tesla Oracle video, 23 Aug: several Cybercabs on the test track at the Texas factory repeatedly practise 'multi-lane stop sign' behaviour on FSD v15, explicitly in preparation for the 3 Sep launch in Austin.
- Tesla itself has long framed the precondition for scaling up unsupervised Cybercab as 'waiting for FSD v15' (per Not a Tesla App: early v15 technology is already carrying passengers). Now there is first-hand footage of real Cybercabs running v15 to learn scenarios, which takes 'v15 is the key to scaling up Cybercab' from a statement to a real-world test.
- Sawyer Merritt (22 Aug) and TeslaNewswire (23 Aug) videos: several Semis are clustered in the end-of-line area (the staging area for vehicles awaiting delivery) at the Nevada Semi factory. The factory is not just building trucks but building them fast enough for them to queue for delivery.
- Since deliveries to PepsiCo began in late 2022, the Semi ramp has been notoriously slow. Only on 29 Apr did Nevada's Gigafactory 1 bring on its high-volume line. Finished trucks now accumulating at the end of the line move commercial heavy trucks a notch from 'taking orders' towards 'actual delivery capability'.
- This differs from the Einride order for 500 trucks (end customer Amazon) and the Semi's European push at the IAA in September, both published earlier: those are demand-side order narratives, while this is evidence that supply-side capacity is genuinely moving.
Catalysts to watch
- 3 Sep: Cybercab launch event in Austin (test rides for invitees and riders picked by the draw)
- The point where the FSD v15 rollout and Cybercab's unsupervised scale-up come together
- Semi volume ramp-up delivered (supply-side data showing finished trucks continuing to build up at the end of the line)
- Semi's appearance at the IAA motor show in Europe in September, and delivery progress on Einride's 500-truck order
Risks
- Cybercab is still rehearsing basic scenarios (stop signs) on a closed test track, not running unsupervised at scale on public roads.
- 3 Sep is a launch event with test rides, and there is still no timetable for scaling up to paying members of the public.
- This echoes the 21 Aug item, 'stopped adding Model Ys of its own accord, driverless fleet shrunk to about 17 vehicles'. On the eve of the launch the single-city fleet is shrinking rather than growing, and whether Cybercab can fill the gap soon is still pure expectation, with no vehicles delivered.
- Merritt's wording is cautious ('at least a little more'), so this is an early signal, not official confirmation of capacity ramp-up data.
- Tesla never discloses Semi production volumes, and finished trucks piling up at the end of the line are not the same as trucks delivered.
- The Semi's unit price is about $300,000, and Tesla itself has warned this year that the production ramp will be gradual.
Sources (4)
- Tesla Oracle (23 Aug): video of Cybercab FSD v15 track training
- Not a Tesla App: its statement that early v15 technology is already carrying passengers
- Sawyer Merritt (22 Aug): video of the Nevada Semi end-of-line area
- TeslaNewswire (23 Aug): video of Semis building up at the end of the line
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.