Tesla FSD: EU-wide vote on 6 Oct, and unsupervised fleets in 3 cities approach 200 vehicles
Two regulatory and operating milestones moved forward on the same day. (1) EU approval of FSD has jumped from a country-by-country grind to an EU-wide vote on 6 Oct, the first fixed date on the calendar.
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Tesla has also made the Article 39 safety data it submitted to regulators open source for the first time (4.1 times safer, backed by RDW's independent 3,000-hour test). (2) The crowdsourced Robotaxi Tracker shows unsupervised fleets in Austin, Dallas and Houston totalling nearly 200 vehicles, a roughly 7x increase, which directly reverses the earlier bearish narrative (Austin alone had shrunk to 17). Ahead of the 3 Sep event, evidence of supply-side scaling is arriving all at once.
Key evidence
- Tesla Europe's official post on 1 Sep: the EU-wide FSD vote could take place as early as 6 Oct, and needs the support of at least 15 of the 27 member states to pass.
- FSD has already been approved in 5 EU countries: the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, Estonia and Lithuania.
- More than 70,000 customers together average over 1 million km a day. A sample of 100 million miles shows a collision probability 4.1 times lower than human driving (Tesla's own figures, plus clearance after RDW's independent 3,000-hour test).
- For the first time, the Article 39 safety dashboard data for FSD (Supervised) that was submitted to regulators is open source.
- Crowdsourced Robotaxi Tracker data for 1 Sep: nearly 200 unsupervised vehicles are operating across Austin, Dallas and Houston combined, an increase of about 7x.
- Every ride in Dallas is fully unsupervised (no safety monitor in the car).
- This comes alongside the news of 1 Sep: 45 Cybercabs registered for commercial use in Texas, and a 50% expansion of the Dallas operating zone.
Catalysts to watch
- EU-wide FSD vote on 6 Oct (earliest possible date, not confirmed)
- Tesla launch event on 3 Sep (window for Cybercab and Robotaxi milestones)
- Official disclosure after 3 Sep of the true size of the unsupervised fleet and order volumes
Risks
- 6 Oct is the earliest date, not a confirmed schedule, and the threshold of 15 of 27 member states is not low. Sweden earlier recommended rejection because FSD can actively exceed the speed limit, so there are votes against.
- Even if it passes, it is still FSD (Supervised), where the driver is responsible. That is not unsupervised, and it is not commercial Robotaxi operation.
- The claim of 4.1 times safer is Tesla's own figure (though RDW backs it), so its marketing weight needs a discount.
- The figures of nearly 200 vehicles and 7x come from the crowdsourced Robotaxi Tracker and are not official disclosures. Widening the count from 1 city to 3 also raises the absolute number by itself, so it is not fully comparable with the roughly 17 in Austin alone earlier.
- Unsupervised operation is not the same as commercial operation at scale for paying members of the public. Compared with Waymo's mature driverless operations across several cities, 200 vehicles is still a starting volume.
- After 3 Sep, official figures and actual ride volumes are needed to confirm whether this is a real expansion and not a change in how the count is made.
Sources (7)
- Reuters
- EVSHIFT
- Benzinga
- Seeking Alpha
- Teslarati
- NotaTeslaApp
- Crowdsourced Robotaxi Tracker
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.