SPCXMonday, 19 Oct 2026
Q3 results set for 20 Oct, attempted arson on Starlink equipment in Lithuania, conflicting accounts of the Ukraine throttling
SpaceX reports Q3 results after the US close on 20 Oct (call at 04:30 Singapore time on 21 Oct). It is the second quarterly report since listing and the first to reflect the 800MHz spectrum deal and a full quarter since V3 reached orbit. Starlink ground facilities in Vilnius, Lithuania, were hit by an attempted arson attack.
Read more
European ground stations have become targets of Russian hybrid warfare, which raises security costs but is positive for Starshield's government business. US Treasury Secretary Bessent listed Starlink as one of the three pillars of aid to Ukraine while denying that the White House ordered the throttling, which contradicts Reuters' report of 15 Oct. That deepens Starshield's ties to the US government but pushes the EU towards Bromo and IRIS² as alternatives.
Key evidence
- SpaceX investor relations site, notice of 16 Oct: Q3 results will be released after the close on Tuesday 20 Oct, US Eastern time, with a call at 04:30 Singapore time on Wednesday 21 Oct. It is the second quarterly report since listing.
- Q2 10-Q baseline (unaudited): total revenue of $7.814 billion (a year earlier: $4.071 billion). Connectivity revenue of $4.291 billion (a year earlier: $2.588 billion), of which enterprise and government were $1.806 billion (a year earlier: $867 million, up about 108%). AI revenue of $2.561 billion. Space revenue of $962 million.
- Clarification of the 10-Q basis: Starlink subscribers count only the personal and business service lines that customers sign up for themselves on Starlink.com. They do not include aviation, maritime and government customers on whole-fleet agreements (United, American Airlines, Southwest and others), which show up only in enterprise and government revenue. Starlink Mobile revenue is also counted in that line.
- Four key points for Q3: (1) whether enterprise and government revenue can keep doubling (airline orders and direct-to-cell monetisation); (2) whether consumer ARPU keeps falling (Q2: $66, down about 22% YoY); (3) how the roughly $8 billion spectrum deal is paid for, and capex guidance; (4) Starship test flights 15 and 16, and the timetable for volume deployment of V3.
- The head of Lithuania's National Crisis Management Centre confirmed on 18 Oct that at about 2am on Sunday someone tried to set fire to Starlink equipment leased by SpaceX at the Delska data centre in Vilnius. The fire was put out, the suspect is at large and a case has been opened (LRT).
- Lithuanian officials put the incident in the same category as similar incidents in Bulgaria and Poland in September and October: attempts by Russia to disrupt Starlink to weaken Ukraine's war effort. The Delska site is an operating part of the Starlink network and serves residents, businesses and the military alike.
Show 3 more
- Bessent on NBC's 'Meet the Press', 18 Oct: the three pillars of US aid to Ukraine are intelligence, Starlink support and allowing NATO to buy US weapons for transfer to Ukraine. Trump and Rubio have explicitly denied that the government ordered the throttling. Bessent called Zelensky's public accusation highly reckless.
- Zelensky on the same programme: the intelligence sharing issue has been resolved, but the speed limit on the military version, Starshield, continues and affects interception of jet-powered drones. He sees the throttling as a signal from the US government. NBC reports that ordinary Starlink has returned to normal speed.
- This directly contradicts Reuters' report of 15 Oct that the White House gave the order, and who holds the switch remains unclear.
Catalysts to watch
- SpaceX Q3 results after the close on 20 Oct, US Eastern time, with a call at 04:30 Singapore time on 21 Oct
- Growth in the enterprise and government revenue segment (a test of airline orders and direct-to-cell monetisation)
- Payment details of the roughly $8 billion spectrum deal and capex guidance
- Starship test flights 15 and 16, and the timetable for volume deployment of V3
- The pace of progress on the EU's Bromo and IRIS² satellite communications alternatives
Risks
- Consumer Starlink ARPU keeps falling (already down 22% YoY in Q2)
- Hybrid warfare attacks such as arson at European ground stations raise security and redundancy costs
- Starshield's deep ties to the US government lead European customers to seek alternatives (Bromo, IRIS²)
- The conflicting accounts of throttling in Ukraine keep exposing the lack of transparency over who holds the switch
Sources (5)
- SpaceX investor relations website, notice of 16 Oct
- SpaceX Q2 2026 SEC 10-Q
- Lithuanian National Radio and Television (LRT), 18 Oct
- NBC 'Meet the Press', 18 Oct
- Reuters, 15 Oct
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.