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TSLA

EU FSD, Turo, Houston Robotaxi, Cybercab production line

Sources (6)

Tesla's FSD (Supervised) is advancing in the EU: 10 countries have approved it individually, and the EU-wide vote in December needs 15. Turo has for the first time connected to a Tesla interface to serve as an entry point for FSD trials. Houston's Robotaxi service area has expanded about 10-fold, but the fleet is only 34 vehicles.

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Cybercab production capacity is running ahead of deployment, and the bottlenecks are regulatory approval, remote operations and city-by-city expansion.

Key evidence

  • On 26 Oct Latvia approved FSD (Supervised), becoming the 10th EU country to approve it individually and bringing the global total to 18 countries.
  • In its own testing, Latvia's Road Traffic Safety Directorate found 3 defects: running red lights, choosing the wrong lane and speeding. Tesla lowered the speeding tolerance, reset any manual speed setting to zero after each trip, and strengthened driver monitoring.
  • The agency warned that ice, snow, mud and de-icing salt can affect the system, and that on gravel roads the system may suddenly hand control back to the driver.
  • Turo uses a Tesla interface to verify which vehicles have FSD enabled, screens renters, and offers qualifying owners a free one-month trial. The Model 3 and Model Y are Turo's 3rd and 4th most rented models.
  • In the third quarter, more than 75% of new Tesla vehicles in North America were fitted with FSD. The global fleet exceeds 10 million vehicles, with about 1.7 million paying for FSD.
  • Houston's Robotaxi service area grew from about 25 to 254 square miles (a 10-fold expansion), but there are only 34 Model Ys with no safety monitor (22 three months ago), no Cybercabs, and about 1 vehicle per 7.5 square miles.
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  • Austin now has 397 driverless vehicles, more than half of them Cybercabs. Dallas is reportedly due to get them next month.
  • Lars Moravy (VP of vehicle engineering), on Munro Live: the production line does not run every day. It is too fast, outpacing deployment.
  • The Cybercab line is about 78% automated (100% on the frame line), with a target takt time of 10 seconds. Final assembly has only 25 automated stations (1/5 to 1/10 of the Model Y line), each vehicle takes up about 50% less floor space, there is no paint shop, and the battery pack uses steel-cased 4680 cells.
  • Design capacity is over 125,000 vehicles a year, yet the Robotaxi fleet is about 1,000 vehicles on NHTSA's count, and Texas registrations show 420 Cybercabs.

Catalysts to watch

  • EU-wide FSD vote in December (needs at least 15 countries to have approved individually; 10 so far)
  • Cybercab enters Dallas (reportedly next month)
  • Weekly increase in Texas Cybercab registrations
  • Higher Robotaxi vehicle density in Houston and Cybercab deployment

Risks

  • The speeding tolerance is a matter for negotiation in the EU, and France and other countries may continue to object.
  • Regulatory approval, remote-operations capability and the pace of city expansion are bottlenecks for deployment.
  • In icy and snowy conditions and on gravel roads, the system may suddenly hand control back.
  • A larger service area does not mean more capacity: waiting times depend on vehicle density.

Sources 6

  1. Tesla Europe's official X account (26 Oct)
  2. Tesla Robotaxi's official X account (26 Oct)
  3. Numerama (citing Latvia's Road Traffic Safety Directorate)
  4. TechCrunch (26 Oct)
  5. Electrek (citing crowd-sourced data from Robotaxi Tracker)
  6. TeslaNorth (Munro Live video)

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.