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UK MoD paid £282 million over ten years against £186 million less in published contracts, insider trading lull, Q3 results after the close on 2 Nov

Sources (2)

Three separate signals. (1) On 28 Oct the FT reported that in the ten years to March 2026 the UK Ministry of Defence actually paid Palantir £282 million, against published contracts totalling only £95.9 million. The £186 million gap comes at least partly from classified contracts.

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Add a three-year, £240.6 million enterprise agreement awarded without competition in December 2025, and the MoD is clearly a mature, large customer. But the disclosure sharpens questions about single-supplier dependence and the lack of competitive tendering. Parliament has asked for less vendor lock-in, and the NHS contract's 2027 break clause and the revolving-door issue give critics political ammunition. The fundamentals are slightly positive (sticky customers) and governance is negative (transparency). (2) Insider trading: SEC EDGAR shows no new Form 4 since 19 Oct. (3) Q3 results come after the US close on 2 Nov.

Key evidence

  • FT, 28 Oct (citing MoD spending records via Dealroom): in the ten years to March 2026, published contracts total £95.9 million while actual payments were £282 million. The gap comes at least partly from classified contracts, and the full reason is still unclear
  • Actual payments are about 3 times the published contract value. Spread over the decade that is about £28 million a year, still small against Palantir's quarterly revenue
  • In December 2025 the MoD awarded Palantir a three-year enterprise agreement worth £240.6 million without competition. It is interoperable with NATO systems
  • A parliamentary committee has asked for less vendor lock-in. The NHS contract has a break clause in 2027. Earlier disclosures covered Palantir's lead role in MoD procurement reviews and the revolving-door issue
  • SEC EDGAR shows no new Form 4 insider filings since 19 Oct
  • Q3 results: due after the US close on 2 Nov. Key metrics: net revenue retention, net new customers, the gap between revenue growth and headcount growth, stock-based compensation as a share of revenue, and remaining performance obligations

Catalysts to watch

  • Q3 results after the close on 2 Nov: net revenue retention, net new customers, revenue growth against headcount growth, SBC as a share of revenue, remaining performance obligations
  • How the earnings call words UK and European revenue, and any sign on NHS renewal
  • Further parliamentary scrutiny of single-supplier dependence and awards without competition in the UK

Risks

  • A sharper political backlash in the UK could affect the NHS renewal and raise transparency and tendering hurdles for future large contracts
  • Governance disputes, including the revolving door and Palantir's lead role in MoD procurement reviews, may keep building
  • At about £28 million a year the scale is small against quarterly revenue, so the impact on the fundamentals is limited

Sources 2

  1. Financial Times, 28 Oct (UK MoD actual payments to Palantir, Dealroom data)
  2. SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings as of 2026-10-29

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.