JPMorgan ends 8 years of bearishness, analyst split at an extreme, FSD progress alongside mishaps
JPMorgan has moved off a bearish rating for the first time in 8 years (Underweight to Neutral, target raised from $145 to $475). It has switched its valuation framework from carmaker to 'a vertically integrated tech platform that happens to make cars', with its core bets on FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus.
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Yet analyst price targets now span a historically extreme $24.86 to $475. At root, the market cannot converge on a price for the long-dated option that is Robotaxi's commercial launch. That fits the 'TSLA as a long-dated option' framework exactly.
Analyst spread signal
- Framework alignment
Consistent with the 'TSLA as a long-dated option' framework
- Interpretation
The market cannot converge at all on how to price the long-dated option of whether Robotaxi gets off the ground
- Magnitude
A spread of nearly 20 times, the most extreme split on record
- Range
$24.86 to $475
Analyst views
JPMorgan
- Analyst
Rajat Gupta
- Caveat
Still Neutral, not Buy: a believer 'in the long term', but 'the current price is not cheap enough'
- Core bets
Autonomous driving, Robotaxi and Optimus
- Framing
No longer valued as a carmaker but as 'a vertically integrated tech platform that also happens to make cars'
- Market reaction
Shares fell about 6.6% on the day of the news, closing at about $391
- Price target change
$145 to $475 (+227.6%)
- Rating change
Underweight to Neutral (first move off a bearish rating in 8 years)
- Revenue forecast
Revenue expected to more than double by 2030
- Target year
End of 2027, not now
Piper Sandler
- Analyst
Alex Potter
- Claim
Says 'Tesla has solved autonomous driving' and believes FSD has reached L4
- Evidence
Tesla offers FSD owners insurance discounts (putting real money behind its safety claims)
- Stance
Bull
GLJ Research
- Analyst
Gordon Johnson
- Interpretation
Driven by inventory clearance and promotions, not a real improvement in demand
- Price target
$24.86 (a gap of nearly 20 times to JPMorgan)
- Q2 delivery forecast
About 426,017 vehicles globally (up QoQ)
- Rating
Sell
- Stance
Bear
FSD failure evidence
- Implication
Directly undercuts Musk's claim that 'unsupervised is imminent'
- Incidents
- A 2023 Model X on V14.3.3 scraped a pillar during Smart Summon
- In another case, a car scraped a garage door while parking
- Owners report that unsupervised FSD still hits posts and scrapes garage entrances
- Judgement
The technology is accelerating, but the 'last 1% long tail' remains unsolved. That is precisely the degradation issue NHTSA's engineering analysis (EA) is focused on.
- Red line status
The red-alert line (Ashok leaving) has not been triggered. Thesis unchanged.
- Source
Reuters (reported 1 hour ago)
FSD progress
- Cumulative miles
FSD has logged 10 billion cumulative miles (disclosed in May), 3.7 billion of them on city streets
- New feature
An 'approaching destination' parking preview dialog (showing where the car will park or pull over), bringing the experience closer to Robotaxi
- Version
FSD V14.3.4
Hidden cost for existing owners
- Cybertruck FSD transfer
Transferring FSD costs another $20k
- HW3 limitation
Musk himself admits HW3 vehicles cannot reach unsupervised level
- Implication
An overlooked discount to the optimistic narrative that the existing fleet gets a 'free upgrade to Robotaxi'
Price action
- 11 Jun close
$399.15
- 12 Jun intraday high
$405.24
- Next earnings
21 Jul (estimated)
Regulation and expansion
- Detail
The unsupervised service now covers the whole Austin geofence (previously only a small pilot area)
- Event
Robotaxi expansion (3 Jun)
- Signal
A concrete sign of commercial progress
- Detail
The second European country after the Netherlands
- Event
Supervised FSD approved by Danish regulators
- Signal
The EU mutual-recognition network is widening
SpaceX signal
- Caveat
Big investors warn the pricing is 'on the expensive side'
- IPO day move
Up about 19% on its first day
- Ticker
SPCX
- TSLA relevance
Valuation sentiment across Musk's companies is running hot overall. It also draws the market's attention to how Musk divides his energy.
Sources (6)
- JPMorgan (Rajat Gupta) research note
- Piper Sandler (Alex Potter)
- GLJ Research (Gordon Johnson)
- Reuters (FSD incident report)
- Tesla May disclosure
- SPCX IPO
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.