Q2 consensus figures are out for the 10 Aug report, options imply ±14%, shorts add ahead of the double risk
HIMS is heading into a binary event window ahead of its Q2 results on 10 Aug, with three fresh developments. (1) The sell-side consensus is now clear for the first time: EPS of -$0.049 and revenue of $698.9 million. Revenue is growing fast while earnings are slightly negative.
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The focus is on whether peptide and GLP-1 volumes deliver, against the pressure the FTC lawsuit puts on customer acquisition costs. (2) Options imply a single-day move of ±14%, priced like a binary event, on top of the high uncertainty around the FTC lawsuit of 29 Jul. (3) Shorts are adding ahead of the double risk of the results and the FTC case (on 3 Aug MarketBeat put HIMS on its list of stocks where bearish pressure is building). That cuts both ways: a positive result would leave fuel for a short squeeze. The current rebound (a close of $30.82 on 3 Aug, +10.98%, still rising after hours and back above the 50-day moving average of about $31.23) is a technical repair and short covering after an oversold FTC panic, not an improvement in fundamentals. The stock is still down more than 50% from its year high of $70.43, and at about 60x forward P/E and about 2x forward P/S the valuation is not cheap.
Key evidence
- Q2 results timing: Monday 10 Aug after the close, with a call at 5:00 PM ET
- Sell-side consensus: EPS of -$0.049 and revenue of $698.9 million (MarketBeat analyst summary)
- Last quarter's Q1 result (11 May) had EPS of -$0.40, a big miss against consensus of +$0.04 (a shortfall of $0.44), mainly because of a one-off drag from consolidating Eucalyptus
- Investing.com's options chain implies a single-day move of about 14% after the results
- On 3 Aug MarketBeat added HIMS to its list of stocks where bearish pressure is building, alongside QXO and KLAC
- The short case: the FTC lawsuit, the risk of equity dilution (Eucalyptus consolidation and receivables financing) and widening net losses
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- Seeking Alpha data from late July: short positions are heavily concentrated in high-volatility names such as HIMS
- Closed at $30.82 on 3 Aug (+10.98%) and kept rising after hours
- A strong rebound from the low after the 15% plunge on the 29 Jul FTC lawsuit, back above the 50-day moving average of about $31.23
- Year high of $70.43; the stock is now down more than 50% from that peak
- Valuation: about 60x forward P/E and about 2x forward P/S
Catalysts to watch
- 10 Aug after the close: Q2 results, a binary event with options implying ±14%
- Specific disclosure on the earnings call of how the FTC lawsuit affects CAC (customer acquisition cost)
- Data showing peptide and GLP-1 volumes coming through
- Progress on the Eucalyptus consolidation and disclosures on receivables financing
- Commercial follow-up to the FDA peptide advisory committee of 23-24 Jul, which recommended 6 of 7 for the 503A list (currently overshadowed by the FTC)
Risks
- Earnings fall short of consensus (Q1 already had a $0.44 miss), triggering a drop of 14% or more
- Pressure on customer acquisition costs from the FTC lawsuit becomes concrete and squeezes unit economics
- Equity dilution: the Eucalyptus consolidation and receivables financing expand the balance sheet further
- Net losses keep widening
- Crowded shorts cut both ways: if the results and FTC update are positive, there is plenty of fuel for a squeeze, and the move the other way could be just as large, ±14% or more
- Valuation is still high (60x forward P/E), not cheap, with a thin margin of safety
Sources (6)
- MarketBeat, 3 Aug: analyst consensus summary (EPS of -$0.049, revenue of $698.9 million)
- MarketBeat, 3 Aug: list of stocks where bearish pressure is building (HIMS, QXO, KLAC)
- Investing.com options-chain implied volatility
- Seeking Alpha data on short-position concentration, late July
- HIMS Q1 results (11 May): actual against consensus
- HIMS intraday and closing prices on 3 Aug ($30.82, +10.98%)
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.