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TSLA

Tesla extends its energy model with a long-term PPA, and Model Y is France's best-seller in September

Sources (8)

Tesla has signed a long-term PPA, its first deal with ContourGlobal, for about 90% of the output of Project Sterling in Arizona (about 1 TWh a year). It takes the energy business beyond one-off hardware sales and into long-term power purchasing.

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In France in September, Tesla registrations rose 61.9% year on year, Model Y was the month's best-seller and BEV penetration reached a record 41.7%. The European recovery offsets the continued slide in retail sales inside China.

Key evidence

  • ContourGlobal has started construction of Project Sterling in Mohave County, Arizona: 509 MWp/450 MWac of solar with 1.4 GWh (360 MW) of four-hour battery storage
  • Tesla signed a long-term PPA (the agreement is dated 28 July) for about 90% of annual output, around 1 TWh of clean power a year. It is Tesla's first deal with ContourGlobal; in 2024 it signed a 57 MWac PPA with Zelestra in Spain
  • The plant connects first to the WAPA grid, then uses secured transmission rights to deliver power into California's CAISO market. ContourGlobal's release says the power will serve Tesla's needs
  • Follows the 601 MW fed back to the grid by the Powerwall VPP (8 Oct) and the long-duration storage project in Australia with 144 Megapacks (20 Sep)
  • Storage is the highest gross margin business in the company: Q2 20.4% against 16.3% for automotive
  • France, September passenger car registrations: Tesla brand up 61.9% year on year; Model Y was the best-selling model across the whole market that month, at about 8,100-9,000 units
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  • France's total registrations in September were 156,600 (up 11.6%), with BEVs at a record 41.7% share
  • For comparison, CnEVPost data show Tesla China wholesale up 5.01% and exports up 58.29%
  • For comparison, retail sales inside China fell for a fourth straight month (-9.4%, reported on 10 Oct)

Catalysts to watch

  • Q3 results on 21 Oct: watch European deliveries and ASP
  • Progress towards grid connection after the 2026 construction start at Project Sterling
  • How the power from Project Sterling is used to serve Tesla's needs

Risks

  • The PPA is a purchase of power, not a self-built plant: Tesla puts up no capital and bears no construction or yield risk. It is a directional positive rather than something already delivered
  • The plant only started construction in 2026, so grid connection and supply are a long way off. The roughly 1 TWh a year is the design output
  • No contribution to current-period financials
  • France's overall market also grew 11.6% in September and penetration jumped, so Tesla's growth includes a sector-wide electrification tailwind that is not exclusive to it
  • Europe is structurally supported by subsidies and penetration policy, a different logic from China's price war and BYD's export push, so it cannot be extrapolated in a straight line
  • Single-month, single-country data: it needs confirmation from later months

Sources 8

  1. Electrek (9-11 Oct)
  2. pv magazine (9-11 Oct)
  3. North American Clean Energy (9-11 Oct)
  4. XenoSpectrum (9-11 Oct)
  5. AAA Data (9-11 Oct)
  6. PFA (9-11 Oct)
  7. Gasgoo (9-11 Oct)
  8. Best Selling Cars Blog (9-11 Oct)

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.