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TSLA

Korea FSD exemption request, Houston Robotaxi expansion looks inflated, Semi catches fire on I-880

Sources (5)

Three separate events. (1) On 22 Oct Tesla Korea asked South Korea's transport ministry for an exemption so it can switch on FSD for 183,000 China-built Model 3 and Model Y cars. Experts think approval is unlikely before 2027-2028, so it adds no subscription revenue in the near term.

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(2) Parts of the 'rocket-shaped' Houston Robotaxi expansion zone show 'Location not available' in the app, and a two-block trip was quoted a detour of about 40 minutes. The headline area is inflated, and the bottleneck is software and operations, not manufacturing. (3) On the evening of 27 Oct an older Semi caught fire without a collision on I-880 in Hayward, California. Citing the risk of toxic chemical fumes, the California Highway Patrol closed the road in both directions for about 10 hours. The focus is on the battery pack or the high-voltage system itself.

Key evidence

  • Korean fleet: 238,968 Teslas are registered. 53,477 US-built cars can use FSD under the Korea-US FTA, while 183,407 China-built Model 3 and Model Y cars cannot (about 180,000 potential conversions)
  • The filing: on 22 Oct Tesla Korea applied for an exemption under Article 114-2 of the Rules on Performance and Standards of Motor Vehicles and Parts. The article has only been used for physical devices, so there is no precedent for software. The submission reportedly lacks technical documents, and hands-off driving on city roads does not meet Korea's driver-assistance standard, which is based on UN R171
  • Houston experience: Ethan McKanna, creator of Robotaxi Tracker (who worked at Tesla this summer), took test rides. In several downtown locations inside Tesla's 'rocket-shaped' service area the app showed 'Location not available' and would not allow pickup. A two-block trip was quoted a detour of about 40 minutes via the medical centre to avoid a rail crossing. Driving quality was 'clearly better than the Waymo I rode recently'
  • Texas registrations: updated on 29 Oct to 1,080 vehicles (Cybercab 573, up 29 from 1,051 yesterday and up 222 in a week; Model Y unchanged at 507)
  • Semi fire: on the evening of 27 Oct an older Semi caught fire without a collision on I-880 in Hayward, California. The driver was not hurt. The California Highway Patrol's Hayward area office closed the road in both directions, and southbound reopened at 3:30 the next morning. The cause is under investigation and Tesla has not responded
  • Semi background: the NTSB investigation into the 2024 fire on I-80 concluded that the truck caught fire after hitting a tree. This time there was no collision, so the focus is on the battery pack or high-voltage system itself. Semi entered volume production in Nevada this year. Tesla has 370 units with WattEV (mainly serving the Port of Oakland, close to the site of the fire) and a first order of 2,500 from the ZET SCALE coalition
  • Industry benchmark: around 15,000 heavy-truck fires occur in the US each year, most of them diesel, so a single incident does not show that the Semi is less safe

Catalysts to watch

  • Progress in talks between the Korean transport ministry and Tesla, and whether the new driver-assistance rules leave room for software
  • Usable Robotaxi area in Houston in practice, and how quickly new Cybercab vehicles are deployed
  • Findings of the Semi fire investigation: whether it traces back to the battery pack or high-voltage design, and whether a recall follows

Risks

  • Korea: this is only an application, not an approval. It will not add subscription revenue soon, and approval is unlikely before 2027-2028
  • Houston: Cybercab production is speeding up, but deployment is held back by software and operations (hard cases such as rail crossings), so service area and fleet size are out of step
  • Semi: if a battery or system design problem is found, it could affect acceptance and insurance terms for fleet customers such as WattEV and ZET SCALE

Sources 5

  1. JoongAng Ilbo, 27-28 Oct (Korea FSD exception filing)
  2. Chosun Ilbo, 27-28 Oct (Korea FSD exception filing)
  3. Electrek, 28 Oct (Houston Robotaxi service area field test by Ethan McKanna)
  4. Texas DMV, 29 Oct registration data (TX DMV Cybercab/Model Y registrations)
  5. California Highway Patrol Hayward Area X / Electrek / NBC Bay Area (Tesla Semi I-880 fire 27 Oct)

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.