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TSLA

Tesla extends Robotaxi hours to 2am and pushes FSD referrals

Sources (6)
  • Good news: Official Robotaxi hours now run from 6am to 2am, 20 hours a day, suggesting the system copes with harder night conditions.
  • Mixed: US referrals now push FSD subscriptions, but each new subscription gives away about one month of revenue ($99).
  • Bad news: In China, zero-interest finance and halved down payments are propping up demand, while retail sales in January to September fell 11.9%.

What we watchWhether Q4 FSD subscription growth can cover the referral cost, and China's November retail data.

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The signals point to a maturing system and a shift towards software subscriptions. Robotaxi's official extension, quiet mode and rear-camera display suggest the system is handling harder night-time conditions.

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The US referral scheme has moved from selling cars to selling FSD subscriptions, so customer acquisition now centres on turning the existing fleet into software revenue. In China, zero-interest finance and halved down payments are a hidden price cut to prop up demand, and domestic sales are weakening. In Australia, Tesla is lobbying to open driverless testing in 2027, but overseas rollout still depends on regulators.

Key evidence

  • Official Robotaxi hours now run from 6am to 2am (20 hours a day). They reached 11pm in early October and midnight two weeks ago, and this time two hours were added at once. Source: Tesla's official Robotaxi X account (Not a Tesla App, 30 Oct)
  • The 1am finish seen on 24 Oct came from a user screenshot, whereas this is the official line. Tesla did not say which cities it applies to, or whether it is limited to the Cybercab
  • Also launched: quiet mode (dims the screen and hides the self-driving display), a rear-camera view (the Cybercab has no rear windscreen) and trip sharing. The Model Y Robotaxi gains Grok
  • The US referral scheme for car purchases (credit of up to $250) has ended. Referrers now share a link and the friend gets a one-month trial of FSD (Supervised). If the friend converts to a paid plan during the trial, the referrer gets one month of free subscription, or a $99 credit if they own FSD outright, up to 12 times a year. Source: Tesla's North America X account and its website support page (live from 29 Oct)
  • Referred customers no longer have to be first-time car buyers, so existing owners qualify too
  • Q3 results: FSD penetration in North America is above 75%, with 1.74 million active subscriptions. Each new subscription gives away about one month of revenue ($99)
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  • China: for some Model 3 and Model Y versions ordered from 30 Oct to 30 Nov, the down payment falls to RMB 39,900 (half the usual amount). The Model Y L down payment is RMB 59,900 with a final balance payment. The rear-wheel-drive Model 3 gets a limited-time RMB 10,000 discount and the Model Y RMB 4,000. Source: CnEVPost, 30 Oct, citing the official poster
  • Tesla's China deliveries have fallen year on year for four months in a row. Retail sales in January to September were down 11.9% year on year and Q3 was down 16% (CPCA data, 20 Oct)
  • Tesla's submission to the Australian Senate (signed 16 Oct, reported by TeslaNorth on 30 Oct) asks for permits for driverless testing on public roads in 2027, and for the Automated Vehicle Safety Law to be brought forward from the expected 2029 to 2027
  • FSD (Supervised) has covered about 160 million km in Australia and New Zealand since its September 2025 launch. Tesla says crashes are 40% fewer and harsh braking 90% less frequent with FSD on than off (Tesla's own figures, with selection bias)

Catalysts to watch

  • Whether hours extend across the 2am to 6am gap (a move towards 24/7)
  • Whether the longer Robotaxi hours spread beyond Austin
  • Whether Q4 growth in FSD subscriptions can support a referral cost of about $99 per order
  • November retail data from China and Q4 automotive gross margin
  • Whether the Australian 2027 driverless testing permit is approved
  • Whether the Automated Vehicle Safety Law is brought forward from 2029 to 2027

Risks

  • The official line on longer Robotaxi hours does not say which cities or models are covered, so it may be limited to the Cybercab
  • FSD referral scheme: each new subscription gives away about $99, which would eat into revenue if Q4 subscription growth falls short
  • Zero-interest subsidies in China will weigh on gross profit per vehicle, and weakening domestic demand is being held up by financing
  • Current Australian law does not allow fully driverless operation, and the transport workers' union objected (filed 19 Oct)
  • The 40% fall in FSD crashes is Tesla's own figure, and FSD is used mostly on simpler roads such as motorways, so there is selection bias

Sources 6

  1. Not a Tesla App, 30 Oct: Tesla's official Robotaxi X account
  2. Tesla's North America X account and website support page (29 Oct)
  3. CnEVPost, 30 Oct: official poster
  4. CPCA (published 20 Oct)
  5. Australian Parliament website, public submission (signed 16 Oct)
  6. TeslaNorth, 30 Oct

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.