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Muse

Meta's Muse blocked by more brokers and retailers

Sources (3)
  • Bad news: Brokers and department stores have joined the blocklist, with JPMorgan, Charles Schwab and Amazon among those blocking Muse, so it cannot serve finance or Amazon shoppers.
  • Mixed: The Wall Street Journal says Amazon's block is mainly about ad revenue, a structural conflict, while Walmart and Shopify chose to work with Meta.
  • Neutral: Meta and Fourier are building the Max humanoid robot, with the second generation started in September; Meta says it is internal research with no plan to sell.

What we watchWhether any new retail partner appears beyond Walmart and Shopify, and when official Muse usage data first comes out.

Read the full notes

Today leans negative. There is no new official usage data, and the news is mainly about who is keeping Muse out, with no new partner among those willing to open up. (1) The blocklist has spread from bank account security to ordinary retail (CNBC, 1 Nov).

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Companies that have publicly blocked Muse are JPMorgan, Charles Schwab, Amazon, Neiman Marcus and Kohl's. The background is a report on 22 Oct that agents had overstepped in customer accounts, after which Senators Warner and Sanders called for legislation to regulate autonomous agents. A CNBC retail expert argues that technology that reduces customer hassle usually wins in the end and that a long-term block will not work (a judgement with no data behind it, so not stronger evidence). In the short term, Muse cannot handle two high-frequency use cases: finance and Amazon. (2) The Wall Street Journal (1 Nov) analyses Amazon's block on Muse as being mainly about ad revenue. Amazon advertising mostly sells paid placements in search results, and an agent that compares prices and picks products itself, ignoring those placements, bypasses that revenue. Amazon says publicly that the reason is security, but the conflict of interest is structural. Walmart and Shopify chose to work with Meta. Our inference is that platforms that earn from on-site ad placements will always have a motive to block, while retailers with less traffic than Amazon that mainly earn from the margin on goods have a motive to use Muse to win traffic, so Muse's shopping landscape will probably split into two camps. This is neutral for the thesis: Muse clearly threatens the biggest e-commerce gateway (otherwise it would not be blocked), but a personal assistant that can do anything cannot yet do so on America's biggest e-commerce platform. (3) The Information (31 Oct) reports that work on the second generation of Max, the humanoid robot Meta is building with Fourier, began in September, and that CTO Bosworth internally calls the humanoid robot the physical embodiment of Muse. A Meta spokesperson says it is internal research with no plan to sell. The design requires it to hear speech from 5 metres away, recognise gestures from 3 metres away, and show states such as listening, thinking and uncertain. The second generation adds a projector and sensors for climbing stairs. This is neutral: management treats Muse as the brain shared by all its hardware, which is consistent, but it is a long way from a product, gives no direct help in the assistant competition over the next 3-5 years, and adds one more long-term investment.

Key evidence

  • Companies that have publicly blocked personal agents such as Muse: JPMorgan, Charles Schwab, Amazon, Neiman Marcus and Kohl's (CNBC, 1 Nov)
  • New blockers are brokers and department stores, which shows the block has spread from bank account security to ordinary retail
  • A report on 22 Oct said agents had overstepped in customer accounts, and Senators Warner and Sanders called for legislation to regulate autonomous agents
  • CNBC retail expert's view: technology that reduces customer hassle usually wins in the end, and a long-term block will not work (a judgement with no data behind it)
  • The Wall Street Journal, 1 Nov: Amazon advertising mostly sells paid placements in search results, and an agent that compares prices and picks products itself bypasses the placement revenue
  • Amazon says publicly that it blocks Muse for security reasons, but the conflict of interest is structural
Show 6 more
  • Walmart and Shopify chose to work with Meta
  • The Information, 31 Oct: Meta and Fourier are building the humanoid robot Max, and work on the second generation began in September
  • CTO Bosworth internally calls the humanoid robot the physical embodiment of Muse
  • Meta spokesperson: Max is internal research, with no plan to sell it
  • Max design requirements: hear speech from 5 metres away, recognise gestures from 3 metres away, and show states such as listening, thinking and uncertain
  • The second generation adds a projector and sensors for climbing stairs

Catalysts to watch

  • Whether any new partner emerges among retailers willing to open up (currently only Walmart and Shopify)
  • First disclosure of official Muse usage data
  • Progress on legislation by Senators Warner and Sanders to regulate autonomous agents
  • Whether more platforms that earn from ad placements follow with blocks
  • Further disclosures on the Max humanoid robot project

Risks

  • Muse cannot handle two high-frequency use cases, finance and Amazon, which weakens its use cases in the short term
  • Platforms that earn from on-site ad placements will always have a motive to block, and negotiation will not solve that
  • Regulatory pressure (the senators' call for legislation) could limit what autonomous agents can do in financial accounts
  • Muse's shopping landscape splits into two camps: high-traffic platforms block, while long-tail retailers open up
  • The Max humanoid robot is a long way from a product, gives no direct help in the assistant competition over the next 3-5 years, and adds a long-term investment

Sources 3

  1. CNBC, 1 Nov (blocklist widens to brokers and department stores)
  2. The Wall Street Journal, 1 Nov (Amazon's block is about ad revenue)
  3. The Information, 31 Oct (Meta and Fourier build the Max humanoid robot)

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.