SpaceX: Colossus 2 power gap; Starshield launch due 3 Nov
- Bad news: Colossus 2's racks alone need about 2.2 GW, 1.8 times Mississippi's 1.2 GW allowance, so power permits limit compute delivery through 2027.
- Good news: USSF-432 is targeted to launch on 3 Nov, the sixth for the Space Force sensing programme in about four months, backed by a $4.16 billion contract.
- Good news: The FCC's final drone order names SpaceX's application for Grain's licences and expects drones to coexist with direct-to-phone services.
What we watchWhether Mississippi's 1.2 GW self-generation allowance can be expanded.
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Musk posted on 31 Oct that Colossus 2 will have about 1.2 million Blackwell GPUs by the end of the year (about 860,000 GB300 across four buildings). Using HPE's GB300 NVL72 rack specifications, FourWeekMBA estimates that the racks alone need about 2.2 GW of power (excluding cooling), about 1.8 times the 1.2 GW self-generation allowance Mississippi granted
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xAI in March. The NAACP's gas turbine lawsuit is still going, and power permits are a hard constraint on compute delivery from Q4 through 2027. Musk also said that by the end of 2028 the monthly addition to orbital compute will exceed that on the ground (a flow, not a stock). So far there is only a single-satellite demonstration, Google's Suncatcher, and with nothing to verify the 2028 timetable it is a vision at best. Starshield defence work is being delivered on schedule. USSF-432 is targeted to launch from Vandenberg at 01:42 UTC on 3 Nov. It is the sixth launch for the Space Force's space-based sensing and targeting programme since mid-August (six in four months). It follows the $4.16 billion space-based air moving target indicator contract the Space Force awarded on 29 May. The launch cadence is close to that of Starlink commercial deployment, and revenue visibility is high without relying on AI customers. The final text of the FCC 26-72 800 MHz drone order, published on 30 Oct, has one more footnote than the draft, footnote 29. It names SpaceX's 9 Oct application to take over Grain's 817-824/862-869 MHz licences (formerly T-Mobile's), and says the Commission expects drones to coexist with mobile and/or satellite direct-to-phone services. So the rules have already made room before the spectrum purchase is approved. On the competitive side, ULA's Vulcan returns to flight in mid-November with 40 Amazon Leo satellites (Spaceflight Now, 28 Oct), and whether it flies on time decides whether Amazon can meet its FCC deployment deadline. Russia's second Rassvet satellite re-entered and burned up on 30 Oct, having never fired its thrusters to change orbit in over three months in orbit. Russia has lost two this year. There have been no new SEC EDGAR filings since the 8-K of 26 Oct.
Key evidence
- Musk's post on X, 31 Oct: Colossus 2 will have about 1.2 million Blackwell GPUs by the end of the year (about 860,000 GB300 across four buildings)
- Musk's post on X, 31 Oct: by the end of 2028 the monthly addition to orbital compute will exceed that on the ground (he stresses it is the addition, not the installed base)
- FourWeekMBA, using HPE's GB300 NVL72 rack specifications: 1.2 million GPUs need about 2.2 GW for the racks alone (excluding cooling)
- In March Mississippi granted xAI a 1.2 GW self-generation allowance (DatacenterDynamics), so demand is 1.8 times the allowance
- The NAACP's gas turbine lawsuit is still going (reported yesterday), and power permits are a hard constraint on compute delivery from Q4 through 2027
- Orbital compute so far has only Google's Suncatcher single-satellite demonstration, and there is no verification of the 2028 timetable
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- USSF-432 is targeted to launch from Vandenberg at 01:42 UTC on 3 Nov (09:42 Singapore time) (TechTimes, 1 Nov, citing the Next Spaceflight launch calendar)
- The sixth launch for the Space Force's space-based sensing and targeting programme since mid-August (six in about four months)
- On 29 May the Space Force awarded SpaceX a $4.16 billion space-based air moving target indicator contract (Space Systems Command website, Reuters)
- The satellites use the Starshield platform carrying a government-supplied radar, and track aircraft, cruise missiles and drones
- The final text of the FCC 26-72 800 MHz drone order was published on 30 Oct, with one more footnote than the draft, footnote 29 (DroneXL, 1 Nov; the original is on the FCC website)
- The footnote names SpaceX's 9 Oct application to take over Grain's 817-824/862-869 MHz licences (formerly T-Mobile's)
- The footnote says the Commission expects drones to coexist with mobile and/or satellite direct-to-phone services
- ULA confirms that Vulcan returns to flight in mid-November with 40 Amazon Leo satellites (Spaceflight Now, 28 Oct)
- Russia's second Rassvet satellite re-entered the atmosphere and burned up on 30 Oct, having never fired its thrusters to change orbit in over three months in orbit (UNITED24, citing N2YO)
- Russia has lost two Rassvet satellites this year
- No new filings on SEC EDGAR since the 8-K of 26 Oct
Catalysts to watch
- USSF-432 launch from Vandenberg at 01:42 UTC on 3 Nov (09:42 Singapore time)
- Whether Mississippi's 1.2 GW self-generation allowance can be expanded (Colossus 2's power gap is on the order of 1 GW)
- How the NAACP gas turbine lawsuit develops
- Progress on approval of SpaceX taking over Grain's low-band licences (817-824/862-869 MHz)
- Whether Vulcan's return to flight in mid-November is on time and successful (this decides whether Amazon Leo can meet the FCC deployment deadline)
- Whether orbital compute gets new verification beyond Google's Suncatcher
Risks
- Colossus 2's power gap is on the order of 1 GW, and permits are a hard constraint on compute delivery
- Musk's 2028 orbital compute vision has no engineering verification and should not be used as the basis for an earnings forecast
- The low-band licence purchase still needs FCC approval, and the footnote only makes room at the rules level
- Government contracts are steady in pace, but depend on further batches being awarded
- Competition: if Vulcan's return to flight succeeds, it gives Amazon Leo a window
Sources 9
- Musk's post on X, 31 Oct
- FourWeekMBA power estimate (HPE GB300 NVL72 rack specifications)
- DatacenterDynamics (Mississippi 1.2 GW allowance for xAI)
- TechTimes, 1 Nov (citing the Next Spaceflight launch calendar)
- Space Systems Command website and Reuters ($4.16 billion contract, 29 May)
- DroneXL, 1 Nov (FCC 26-72; the original is on the FCC website)
- Spaceflight Now, 28 Oct (Vulcan return to flight and Amazon Leo)
- UNITED24, citing N2YO (Russia's Rassvet re-entry)
- SEC EDGAR
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.