Tesla Robotaxi opens Fort Worth; Europe sales rebound

TSLATuesday, 3 Nov 2026

Good news: Robotaxi launched in Fort Worth, its 7th driverless city, ahead of plan and not on the October list.
Mixed: Europe's October registrations jumped (Norway +131%), but mostly on a low base from last year's Sweden strike.
Bad news: Chinese brands took a record 22.5% of Norway, and in Denmark Tesla holds only 0.73%.

What we watchWhether Norway keeps the number one share in November registrations.

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Robotaxi has opened Fort Worth as its 7th driverless city. The launch was unplanned and not on the October next-batch list, and it makes Dallas-Fort Worth a second home base alongside Austin. Europe's October registrations recovered sharply (Sweden +248%, Norway +131%, Spain +271%, France +35%), but mostly on the base effect from last year's Sweden strike.

Chinese brands took a record 22.5% of the Norwegian market, 2.3x Tesla's share, while in Denmark Tesla holds only 0.73%, behind BYD, Leapmotor, XPeng and MG. Tesla's European moat is shifting from product to price.

Key evidence

Fort Worth launched on 2 Nov at 6am CT with no safety monitor, a geofence of about 143 sq mi and Model Y only (per the Not a Tesla App service area map)
Third-largest geofence, after Austin (272 sq mi) and Houston (254 sq mi). It is about 3 months since the last new city (Orlando and Tampa, end of July)
Fort Worth was not on the next batch announced in October (Las Vegas, Phoenix, Jacksonville, San Antonio), so this is an unplanned early launch
Texas registrations: +124 on 31 Oct and +40 on 2 Nov, all Model Y. Cybercab stays at 573. This matches our thesis that these were staging vehicles for new cities
Ashok said on the Q3 earnings call that Cybercab is coming to Dallas this month
Norway in October: best month ever, with a 9.8% share and the number one spot. Model Y sold 1,429 units, the best-selling car of the month. Year to date, however, 21,523 registrations are still 3.9% below last year

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Chinese brands hold a record 22.5% of Norway, 2.3x Tesla. In Denmark Tesla has only 0.73%, behind BYD, Leapmotor, XPeng and MG
Reuters (2 Nov) aggregate: Sweden +248%, Norway +131% to 1,548, Denmark +34%, Spain +271% to 1,459, France +35%
Base-effect caveat: October 2025 was the Sweden strike period, so the triple-digit growth is largely an artefact
A signal that supports the Q3 call's claim of a '4-year high order backlog': Norway is back to number one in share
ADAC review context (2 Nov): the European moat is shifting from product strength to price

Catalysts to watch

Fort Worth's actual fleet size and wait times (watch over the next 2 weeks)
Whether the 4 cities on the October list (Las Vegas, Phoenix, Jacksonville, San Antonio) also launch ahead of schedule
Cybercab launch in Dallas this month, per Ashok
November European registrations: does Norway hold the number one share, or was October a one-off?
Continued share gains for Chinese brands in Europe (BYD, Leapmotor, XPeng, MG)

Risks

Fort Worth may stay small, like Orlando and Tampa, so the launch headline is bigger than the reality
The base effect inflates Europe's growth numbers. The real demand picture should be clearer in November
Chinese EV brands are eroding Tesla's share faster than Tesla can respond on price
At a 0.73% share in Denmark, Tesla is close to irrelevant in that market, which could be a leading indicator for other EU markets

Sources 7

Robotaxi official account, 2 Nov
Not a Tesla App service area analysis
Texas DMV registrations tracker
Reuters aggregation of European registrations, 2 Nov
National registration bodies of Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Spain and France
Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call (Ashok on Dallas)
ADAC review, 2 Nov

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.