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TSLA

Tesla: Cybercab inverter heads to Model 3; Model Y last in ADAC test

Sources (5)
  • Good news: Cybercab's inverter goes into Model 3 production this year with far fewer components and several suppliers, which bears directly on automotive gross margin.
  • Mixed: Texas Robotaxi fleet added 40 Model Ys to reach 1,244 against Waymo's 1,259, but the Cybercab count has not risen for several days.
  • Bad news: ADAC ranked the Model Y Performance last of four electric SUVs at 2.2, as German rivals pulled ahead on range and charging.

What we watchWhen the Cybercab count starts rising again; arrival in Dallas in November is the test.

Read the full notes

Cybercab's cost-cutting work is starting to feed back into the Model 3. Its inverter goes into production this year with far fewer components and works with multiple suppliers, which bears directly on automotive gross margin. In Texas, the Robotaxi fleet added 164 Model Ys over two days, taking the total to 1,244 against Waymo's 1,259, a gap of 15 vehicles.

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The Cybercab count, though, has stayed at 573 with no additions for several days, so expansion is once again led by the mature model. In Europe, ADAC ranked the Model Y Performance last, at 2.2, in a comparison of four top-spec all-wheel-drive electric SUVs (the Mercedes GLC came first at 1.8). German rivals' new platforms have overtaken it on range and charging, so its moat has slipped from product strength to value for money (it is about €10,000 cheaper). In China, incentives have spread from new cars (half the down payment and 5-year 0% financing from 30 Oct) to certified used cars (RMB 5,000 off until the end of November). Demand looks soft, and price tools are propping up volumes.

Key evidence

  • Cybercab's inverter circuit board and power stage go into Model 3 production this year, with far fewer electronic components, and can take parts from several suppliers. The interfaces are fully retained, so it could be fitted straight into the Model Y drive unit, but no switchover date has been announced (Munro Live factory tour, confirmed by Nick Verzini, Drive Tesla Canada, 1 Nov)
  • The 11:1 gear ratio, mechanical oil pump and low-cost aluminium-housing cooling are Cybercab-specific changes, and there is no confirmation that they will be passed down
  • Q3 automotive gross margin excluding credits was about 18.1%. Range and price are reportedly unchanged, so the gain shows up in costs rather than in the product
  • The Texas autonomous vehicle list rose from 1,204 to 1,244. The 40 additions were logged by the DMV as 'Modey Y' but are in fact Model Y (GitHub tx-robotaxi-tracker, scraped automatically on 2 Nov; registered to Tesla Robotaxi, LLC; every vehicle can be checked by VIN)
  • We estimate about 671 Model Y and 573 Cybercab, with the Cybercab count unchanged for several days. Waymo has 1,259, a gap of 15 vehicles
  • Two consecutive batches within two days, 164 vehicles in all, were all Model Y, so the main source of fleet vehicles has gone back from the Cybercab to the Model Y
Show 6 more
  • ADAC comparison of four top-spec all-wheel-drive electric SUVs, 30 Oct: Mercedes GLC electric first at 1.8, BMW iX3 and Volvo EX60 both 1.9, Model Y Performance last at 2.2 (lower is better in German grading; reported by teslamag.de)
  • The BMW iX3 has about 50% more range on a single charge and charges from 10% to 70% in 25 minutes against 35 minutes for the Model Y. The Model Y lost points on build quality, driver assistance, interior and safety
  • The Model Y Performance costs €62,990, at least about €10,000 less than the three rivals. ADAC's scores do not take price into account
  • Tesla China is taking RMB 5,000 off certified used Model S, 3, X and Y ordered and delivered by the end of November (TeslaNorth, 1 Nov)
  • Together with the new-car offer of half the down payment and 5-year 0% financing from 30 Oct, Tesla is supporting both new-car sales and used-car residual values
  • Over the same period, Xiaomi and XPeng each delivered more than 50,000 vehicles in October (CnEVPost, 1 Nov)

Catalysts to watch

  • Per-vehicle cost disclosure in the Q4 and Q1 results (to confirm the gross margin contribution of the Cybercab inverter passed down to the Model 3)
  • When Tesla's Texas registrations overtake Waymo's (the gap is now 15 vehicles)
  • When the Cybercab count starts rising again (arrival in Dallas in November is the test)
  • European registration data for November
  • Whether the Model Y L reaches Europe, as rumoured
  • Tesla China wholesale and retail data for October from the CPCA

Risks

  • No confirmation that the Cybercab-specific changes (11:1 gear ratio, mechanical oil pump, low-cost aluminium-housing cooling) will be passed down to the Model 3 or Y
  • No figure given for how many components are saved
  • No date announced for the Model Y switching to the new inverter
  • The Texas DMV logged the Model Y as 'Modey Y', so the tracker filed those vehicles under other, which is a data quality problem for the model breakdown
  • German electric platforms have already overtaken the Model Y on range and charging, putting pressure on both European share and profit per vehicle
  • Demand in China is soft: Tesla has extended incentives from new cars to used cars, and Xiaomi and XPeng delivering more than 50,000 vehicles a month squeezes its share

Sources 5

  1. Drive Tesla Canada, 1 Nov (Munro Live factory tour, interview with Nick Verzini)
  2. GitHub tx-robotaxi-tracker, 2 Nov (Texas DMV autonomous vehicle list)
  3. teslamag.de (ADAC comparison of four top-spec all-wheel-drive electric SUVs, 30 Oct)
  4. TeslaNorth, 1 Nov (Tesla China RMB 5,000 off certified used cars)
  5. CnEVPost, 1 Nov (Xiaomi and XPeng October deliveries)

A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.