Stray Dog

SpaceX: Ookla test shows direct-to-cell only fills gaps

  • Mixed: Ookla's US test shows Starlink direct-to-cell fills coverage gaps, but text delivery of 86% trails the ground's 98.1%.
  • Neutral: Japan Airlines credited ZIPAIR's 12.3% revenue rise to Starlink plus flexible pricing, without splitting the two.
  • Mixed: SpaceX/xAI entered Synergy's cloud top ten with about 3% share, but Anthropic was 34.5% of third-quarter revenue.
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Ookla's first US direct-to-cell test, published on 3 Nov, confirms Starlink can for now only fill coverage gaps (T-Mobile's share of tests with no signal at all fell from 2.01% to 0.50%), but performance is far behind the carriers:

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text delivery rate 86% against 98.1% on the ground, median delivery time 16.6 seconds against 1.3 seconds, and median signal-to-noise ratio of 3.0 dB, below the 5 dB starting point for coverage in the FCC's new proposal. Yesterday's reported approach to Boost Mobile depends on next-generation direct-to-cell satellites (which need Starship) and on EchoStar spectrum coming through. The user base and the value of filling gaps are confirmed, but pricing power has to wait for the next-generation constellation. Airlines have tied Starlink to revenue for the first time: in its half-year results on 2 Nov, Japan Airlines credited ZIPAIR's 12.3% rise in passenger revenue to Starlink across the whole fleet plus flexible pricing, without separating the two. Do not read the 73% fall in the low-cost segment's operating profit as Starlink bringing profit. The negotiating story has moved from passenger experience to reported revenue. In Synergy's third-quarter cloud market data, SpaceX/xAI enters the top ten for the first time, in sixth place with about 3% share, but this is a third-party estimate. The AI business has scaled up, but customer concentration (Anthropic was 34.5% of third-quarter revenue) remains the key risk. Starlink is swapping first-generation dish customers to the Standard kit for free. Together with dynamic pricing from 30 Nov, this clears out inefficient terminals to raise capacity use per satellite, at the cost of more hardware subsidy in the short term.

Key evidence

  • Ookla's first US direct-to-cell test, 3 Nov: about 20 countries and about 22 million users a month. The US was about 41% of all direct-to-cell usage in September
  • Handset penetration: about 26 phones per 10,000 connect to a satellite each day in New Zealand, against about 11 in the US
  • RootMetrics US drive test: T-Mobile's share of tests with no signal at all fell from 2.01% in 2H 2024 to 0.50% in 2H 2026
  • Performance gap: text delivery rate 86% (ground 98.1%), median delivery time 16.6 seconds (ground 1.3 seconds). Small file download success rate 60% (ground 93%), taking 922 milliseconds (ground 156 milliseconds)
  • Median signal strength is -120 dBm (ground LTE -105). Median signal-to-noise ratio is 3.0 dB, below the 5 dB starting point in the FCC's new proposed coverage rules
  • Note: Ookla ran its drive tests in moving vehicles, not the stationary outdoor setting officially recommended, so the numbers are conservative
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  • The service currently relies on 650 first-generation direct-to-cell satellites. The next generation needs Starship, and EchoStar spectrum coming through is the turning point
  • Japan Airlines half-year results, 2 Nov: passenger revenue at its long-haul low-cost carrier ZIPAIR rose 12.3% in April to September. Its own words credit 'Starlink high-speed network installed across the whole fleet' plus 'flexible pricing', with no split. Operating profit in the low-cost segment fell 73% over the same period
  • Air Tahiti Nui (official press release, 3 Nov): all four 787-9s have Starlink, with free access in every cabin from 2027
  • United (Via Satellite, 2 Nov): 671 aircraft fitted, covering about half of daily flights, with the cockpit not connected
  • Synergy third-quarter cloud market (CRN, 3 Nov): global cloud infrastructure services $168 billion, up 55% year on year. SpaceX/xAI enters the top ten for the first time, in sixth place with about 3% share. Anthropic about 2%, CoreWeave about 2%
  • Synergy's chief analyst warned that profitability will be a big challenge for new entrants and that consolidation will come. Anthropic was 34.5% of third-quarter revenue (customer concentration risk)
  • Starlink support page (cited by Tesla North, 3 Nov): users still on the earliest first-generation dish can swap to the Standard kit for free (including Router 3 and a mount, with optional free installation). The old unit is disabled 14 days after the new one goes live or arrives, and cannot be transferred
  • Dynamic pricing effective 30 Nov goes with the swap, clearing out inefficient terminals to raise capacity use per satellite
  • USSF-432 delayed again, to 7 Nov 00:46 UTC (Vandenberg, KeepTrack and Vandenberg notices). USSF R-5 moved up to 9 Nov, at 03:17 UTC
  • SEC EDGAR: no new filings since the 8-K of 26 Oct

Catalysts to watch

  • Launch of next-generation direct-to-cell satellites (needs Starship) and EchoStar spectrum coming through: decides pricing power in direct-to-cell
  • Progress on the approach to Boost Mobile
  • FCC's proposed 5 dB coverage rule taking effect (regulatory threshold)
  • More airlines tying Starlink to revenue in their results
  • Effect of dynamic pricing going live on 30 Nov
  • Launch cadence of next-generation direct-to-cell satellites on Starship

Risks

  • Direct-to-cell performance is an order of magnitude behind ground networks, so it cannot act as a carrier in the short term
  • Airline revenue growth is not split between Starlink and flexible pricing, so the attribution is doubtful
  • A 73% fall in low-cost segment operating profit shows that installation does not equal profit
  • Synergy's cloud share is a third-party estimate, not a company figure
  • Anthropic was 34.5% of third-quarter revenue, a customer concentration risk
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  • The free swap of first-generation dishes adds to hardware subsidy costs in the short term
  • USSF-432 has been delayed several times

Sources 9

  1. Ookla US direct-to-cell test, 3 Nov
  2. RootMetrics US drive test
  3. Japan Airlines half-year results, 2 Nov
  4. Air Tahiti Nui press release, 3 Nov
  5. Via Satellite, 2 Nov
  6. Synergy / CRN, 3 Nov
  7. Starlink support page / Tesla North, 3 Nov
  8. KeepTrack / Vandenberg notices
  9. SEC EDGAR