First look at CyberCab's EPA specs, Goldman Sachs raises Q2 delivery forecast to 420,000
CyberCab's EPA certification filing discloses measured specifications for the first time: a small 47.6 kWh battery, a single front-mounted 163 kW motor, a kerb weight of 1,412 kg and an unadjusted EPA range of 418 miles (about 293 miles adjusted).
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This shows it is a car that can be mass-produced and deliver outstanding unit economics, directly serving its targets for a sub-$30K price and Robotaxi cost per mile. On the same day Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 delivery forecast from 405,000 to 420,000 vehicles (driven by Europe), but kept its Neutral rating and $375 target. The delivery beat is driven mainly by inventory clearance and promotions, gross margin quality is questionable, and the market is unwilling to pay a premium for volume. The test comes with earnings on 22 Jul.
Key evidence
- EPA test group TTSLV00.0L1A filing: CyberCab's battery is 47.6 kWh (smaller even than the 57.5 kWh in the Model 3 RWD)
- Single front-mounted 163 kW motor (219 hp), front-wheel-drive layout
- Kerb weight of 3,113 lbs (about 1,412 kg), two seats, no primary driving controls. That confirms a Robotaxi design with no steering wheel or pedals.
- Unadjusted EPA combined range of 418.2 miles, about 293 miles after the 0.7 adjustment (long range from a small battery means exceptional efficiency)
- Goldman Sachs's Mark Delaney, 16 Jun note: Q2 delivery forecast raised from 405k to 420k, mainly on strong European sales. Neutral rating and $375 target maintained (about 8.8% downside from about $411).
- Consistent with Polymarket's 67.1% probability for the 425k-475k range. Barclays and the weekly Reddit report (+28% YoY) already make up an outside consensus for a beat.
- Price: intraday high of $412.42 on 16 Jun, now about $405, still -10% YTD
Catalysts to watch
- CyberCab volume-production target for the end of 2026 (EPA certification is hard evidence of the move from concept to a car that can be mass-produced)
- Q2 earnings on 22 Jul: a test of whether the delivery beat comes with better gross margins or is driven purely by inventory clearance and promotions
- Disclosure of Robotaxi unit economics: cost per mile is the core argument for CyberCab's overwhelming advantage over Uber and Waymo
Risks
- Goldman raising its delivery forecast but not its target is the sell side clearly signalling doubt: volume is not quality
- If the Q2 delivery beat is driven by promotions and inventory, disappointing gross margins on earnings day could amplify the downside
- CyberCab's actual start of volume production, capacity ramp and regulatory clearance (having no steering wheel or pedals requires an NHTSA exemption) are all unknowns
- Goldman's $375 target implies 8.8% downside and already prices in the split between volume and price
Sources (6)
- The Verge: EPA filing on CyberCab specs
- CleanTechnica: CyberCab EPA breakdown
- Automotive World: EPA 15-page document analysis
- Goldman Sachs note (Mark Delaney, 16 Jun)
- Polymarket Q2 delivery market
- Barclays Q2 preview, Reddit Tesla Sales weekly
A brief is a lead for our research, not a verified conclusion or advice.