TSLA
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SPCX
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META
BTCIf AI can learn it, it’s not a moat
Chegg sold homework help. Then ChatGPT gave it away free
- $96.53, Feb 2021
- ChatGPT launches
- −48% in one day
Month-end share prices. The one-day fall was on 2 May 2023. Source: Nasdaq
Why it matters
If AI can learn your moat, the market can write it off overnight: the day after Chegg said ChatGPT was hurting sign-ups, its shares fell 48%.
Try it yourself
AI can copy
Information gaps are collapsing: AI makes information close to free.
A lead in pure software can be copied in months.
Text, images and video can now be mass-produced.
AI lowers the bar for building a good app, so a lead in ease of use doesn't last.
AI can't reach
AI can't reach private data, and makes it worth more to whoever owns it.
AI can copy capability. It can't copy a licence.
Even a smarter AI can't get around a regulator.
AI lives in bits. It can't move atoms.
When anything can be faked, trust gets scarcer.
AI can write code. It can't make the decisions that bet the company.
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