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Prices are Hyperliquid perpetual futures: contracts that track each stock and trade 24/7. They are not exchange prices and can differ from them, most of all while US markets are closed. Change is over 24 hours. For information only.

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Fast growers: value them like options

Weigh how big it could get, the odds of getting there, how long it takes, and whether a profitable core holds up the downside

Odds: bad 30%, base 50%, good 20%

Probability-weighted value$52.40
Expected return a year18.0%
  • CeilingGood case is 15.0x: at least 10x
  • Expected value18.0% a year clears the 9% hurdle
  • FloorBad case keeps $8: a profitable core holds it up

Passes all three gates

A made-up growth company at $10 a share, with a 9% hurdle rate. Values are per share in ten years; the bad case's odds stay at 30%.
Why it matters

A P/E alone can’t value a fast grower. In 2026 Palantir traded at about 150 times earnings, yet our numbers said: a great company, fairly priced, returning about −4% to 20% a year over three years.

How Much Is Palantir Actually Worth?19 Aug 2026 · 18:30

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